* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL992006 10/06/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 36 42 50 51 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 36 42 50 51 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 25 21 24 26 25 30 30 27 23 17 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 32 37 38 43 52 54 63 55 57 53 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 -1 3 -1 -1 -6 -6 -10 -8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 33 35 29 26 31 41 48 48 48 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 26.9 26.0 25.2 26.1 25.6 25.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 125 114 110 111 108 105 108 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 125 113 100 99 90 90 85 88 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -56.1 -56.5 -57.4 -57.5 -58.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 9 7 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 51 53 56 45 35 30 37 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 8 10 12 13 16 17 12 7 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -18 23 55 80 75 12 9 -44 -69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 45 75 125 100 91 44 16 33 44 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 854 795 749 738 749 681 800 869 844 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.4 29.3 31.0 32.1 34.4 36.5 35.7 35.5 35.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.5 71.1 69.7 69.0 67.7 66.2 65.2 64.2 64.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 15 17 12 19 3 6 1 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 4. -9. -21. -31. -36. -41. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 30. 31. 19. 9. -0. -5. -10. -15.