* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIVIA EP162006 10/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 19 23 22 22 23 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 10 12 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 0 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 181 210 253 294 317 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 140 139 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 69 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 38 44 47 37 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -12 10 45 73 92 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2136 2136 2160 2130 2113 2138 2065 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.9 127.8 128.1 128.0 127.8 128.1 127.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 1 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 71/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.