* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NORMAN EP152006 10/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 49 50 44 36 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 49 50 44 36 25 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 38 37 35 31 28 22 DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 39 31 26 24 21 22 20 21 18 17 17 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 1 8 16 12 9 14 18 21 24 39 50 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 3 4 6 5 -3 0 -3 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 19 90 89 52 43 50 65 60 66 50 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.1 27.3 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 140 136 136 136 129 125 125 138 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 73 74 69 65 59 53 45 46 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 12 12 11 11 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 28 40 33 18 15 -6 -2 -2 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 102 100 102 121 111 123 58 42 22 37 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1267 1136 1090 1120 1120 997 842 701 480 175 -32 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 15.1 16.0 16.1 16.0 16.9 18.3 19.5 21.2 23.4 25.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.0 117.4 117.9 117.8 117.1 116.5 116.0 114.9 113.1 111.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 7 2 3 7 7 8 12 13 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):344/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -5. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 20. 14. 6. -5. -14. -15. -16.