* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NORMAN EP152006 10/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 39 41 39 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 39 41 39 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 35 34 31 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 34 26 25 24 22 17 15 13 15 12 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 16 18 13 13 22 26 28 35 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 1 2 5 9 3 -1 0 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 55 98 98 82 59 42 55 50 73 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 137 133 130 125 121 119 117 115 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 65 66 65 63 58 56 56 58 59 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 9 7 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 16 12 1 -11 -24 -53 -49 -33 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 101 97 71 61 19 18 17 37 20 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1195 1092 1051 996 928 824 706 625 545 459 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.1 117.4 117.4 117.2 117.0 116.4 116.1 115.8 115.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):344/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -9. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 9. 5. -5. -14. -25. -29. -32. -34.