* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FOUR CP042006 10/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 67 82 88 92 91 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 55 67 82 88 92 91 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 54 66 77 86 88 86 V (KT) G10R 38 28 27 26 24 22 22 25 33 38 39 39 42 SHEAR (KT) 10 15 12 9 9 11 7 4 9 7 10 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 11 5 4 5 5 9 1 1 5 8 9 11 SHEAR DIR 37 92 84 87 69 71 92 138 76 47 80 38 87 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 147 147 148 150 147 148 146 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 64 66 72 71 75 72 73 69 69 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 14 14 16 21 23 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 9 2 7 14 15 51 73 75 54 58 63 200 MB DIV 60 51 22 9 24 43 73 91 96 120 78 85 60 LAND (KM) 1033 1015 1049 1117 1173 1242 1281 1275 1196 1133 957 761 599 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.8 12.2 12.2 12.2 11.6 11.2 10.8 11.4 12.1 13.7 15.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 161.0 161.6 162.6 163.5 164.2 164.5 164.6 164.1 163.7 163.6 162.9 162.0 160.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 5 3 2 6 4 6 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):264/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -0. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 30. 42. 57. 63. 67. 66. 61.