* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NORMAN EP152006 10/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 52 57 59 57 55 54 49 44 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 52 57 59 57 55 54 49 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 41 42 41 42 42 43 44 43 V (KT) G10R 29 27 24 23 23 20 22 22 20 22 25 22 21 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 7 10 13 12 12 13 13 17 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 1 2 2 0 -1 -5 -3 -1 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 69 61 86 63 20 3 2 19 32 45 24 28 26 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 142 139 135 135 138 137 136 138 143 150 156 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 72 71 75 77 76 74 74 70 67 64 59 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -9 3 18 33 26 3 0 -14 -14 3 27 38 59 200 MB DIV 109 93 93 108 114 118 66 48 44 34 44 44 35 LAND (KM) 1261 1203 1206 1205 1168 1149 1066 909 771 630 490 349 266 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.6 118.6 118.6 117.4 115.8 114.9 113.7 112.4 111.0 110.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 4 3 3 8 6 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):344/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 27. 29. 27. 25. 24. 19. 14.