* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIVIA EP162006 10/11/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 37 33 31 28 25 23 21 20 20 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 37 33 31 28 25 23 21 20 20 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 37 35 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 24 24 22 21 20 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 23 24 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 5 15 19 4 359 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 133 135 136 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 59 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 69 60 55 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 130 89 66 58 50 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1676 1609 1566 1515 1436 1312 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.8 124.9 124.4 123.6 122.6 120.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 46/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20.