* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FOUR CP042006 10/11/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 43 52 58 63 67 71 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 43 52 58 63 67 71 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 28 27 V (KT) G01R 40 22 24 27 28 30 31 31 35 37 38 39 41 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 14 6 4 2 4 10 8 6 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 0 0 3 1 6 7 4 6 8 3 7 SHEAR DIR 135 148 118 113 129 42 77 32 93 78 119 103 80 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 154 152 150 146 143 139 140 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 72 72 73 68 65 64 62 61 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 16 18 19 19 20 21 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 44 35 38 39 43 35 38 43 59 61 70 200 MB DIV 102 95 89 90 87 102 94 98 69 26 42 43 47 LAND (KM) 1359 1418 1392 1390 1448 1382 1242 1089 930 831 806 768 664 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.1 8.5 9.2 9.5 10.6 12.3 13.8 15.0 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 162.4 162.6 162.8 163.8 165.0 165.3 165.7 165.5 164.7 163.8 163.1 162.2 161.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 8 12 7 8 8 7 7 4 4 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 78/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 18. 27. 33. 38. 42. 46. 47. 48.