* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIVIA EP162006 10/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 26 26 24 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 26 26 24 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 24 21 23 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 27 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 316 303 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.7 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 150 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 58 64 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 93 75 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 990 910 957 972 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.4 15.3 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 115.3 114.3 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):109/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11.