* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NORMAN EP152006 10/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 39 31 29 27 27 28 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 39 31 29 27 27 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 36 29 29 31 34 38 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 13 16 19 23 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 1 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 296 296 294 288 287 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.8 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 157 159 162 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 71 69 67 67 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 20 19 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 85 90 97 101 100 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 93 110 115 100 129 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 583 577 542 509 460 270 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 17.2 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.6 109.2 108.8 108.2 106.2 105.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):143/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 1. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 9. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3.