* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL902006 10/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 39 41 43 47 51 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 39 41 43 47 50 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 20 22 19 14 16 17 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 22 18 19 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 8 7 -5 2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 133 142 143 133 173 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 153 156 158 159 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 131 142 152 154 149 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 49 50 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 -4 8 24 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 7 25 1 -33 -13 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 232 268 215 93 44 161 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 19.8 19.8 19.2 17.6 16.5 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.7 63.7 64.3 65.5 66.0 67.2 68.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 3 9 14 13 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):227/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -15. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. 18. 22. 26. 29.