* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIVIA EP162006 10/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 28 22 25 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 28 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 310 302 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 28.1 28.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 151 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 60 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 57 59 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 68 87 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1049 1005 989 972 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.3 14.8 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 115.2 113.9 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):109/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9.