* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIVIA EP162006 10/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 26 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 26 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 30 25 24 23 23 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 23 26 31 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -2 -1 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 331 324 321 315 308 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 136 141 146 150 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 49 53 57 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 68 78 77 89 110 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 59 69 76 81 55 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1006 967 921 853 804 875 1109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.0 16.9 16.6 15.7 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.0 116.2 115.1 113.8 113.4 112.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 9 12 11 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):109/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -5. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15.