* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FOUR CP042006 10/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 25 29 35 41 45 48 53 56 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 25 29 35 41 45 48 53 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 18 20 20 23 25 22 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 16 16 19 15 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 7 10 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 123 96 99 128 119 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 147 145 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 13 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 50 51 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 44 36 24 18 11 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -5 -2 -2 -26 22 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1245 1196 1149 1055 916 629 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.7 15.2 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.2 164.6 164.0 163.2 162.4 160.2 157.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 10 12 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 33. 36.