* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL902006 10/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 31 31 31 29 25 26 28 32 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 30 30 28 26 26 26 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 23 22 22 21 20 20 15 13 12 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 29 27 23 26 18 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 -2 0 22 17 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 160 178 186 177 181 162 190 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 25.6 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 160 162 158 152 108 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 151 153 156 154 148 101 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 15 15 13 16 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 53 50 50 52 53 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 26 21 21 15 0 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 0 22 -4 -24 -18 -21 -37 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 22 21 100 193 287 224 122 8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 17.8 17.0 16.2 15.4 14.0 13.1 12.5 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.3 66.7 67.2 67.5 69.2 70.5 71.7 71.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. -0. 1. 3. 7. 11.