* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL902006 10/17/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 32 32 30 29 24 20 16 17 19 20 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 32 32 30 29 24 20 16 17 19 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 27 26 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 24 21 22 20 18 16 16 12 14 12 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 36 41 38 32 37 21 36 32 35 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 10 10 6 -9 3 9 4 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 187 203 208 197 203 191 193 198 212 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 153 154 156 151 152 153 157 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 130 135 138 141 131 133 133 151 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 50 48 54 57 55 49 43 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 38 37 30 28 30 20 19 -8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -44 -24 -33 -30 -93 -61 -25 -7 -20 -24 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 153 180 180 179 177 144 188 183 201 139 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.8 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.7 66.2 67.2 67.2 67.7 67.3 69.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 0 2 4 5 0 2 2 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):218/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. -1. -5. -9. -8. -6. -5.