* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP922006 10/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 31 36 38 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 22 22 24 28 33 38 40 41 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 18 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -16 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 26. 34. 41. 46. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 18. 19. 22. 22.