* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL902006 10/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 44 52 54 56 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 44 52 54 56 59 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 44 48 51 DIS V (KT) G05R 22 20 22 20 20 21 18 16 17 18 16 16 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 18 10 4 9 5 2 9 12 12 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 10 8 10 2 2 3 2 -3 -1 -7 N/A SHEAR DIR 151 116 141 179 52 94 354 355 32 96 91 96 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 149 147 152 146 145 143 137 132 126 122 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 145 132 126 136 128 130 126 120 117 110 107 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 60 55 54 52 50 46 43 42 42 44 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 69 59 55 49 21 22 -17 -46 -87 -97 -129 N/A 200 MB DIV -14 4 9 12 -8 1 3 8 -13 -23 -17 7 N/A LAND (KM) 100 244 333 344 311 398 459 601 756 902 1069 1226 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.7 21.5 21.6 21.3 21.8 22.6 23.9 25.2 26.2 27.0 27.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.0 66.2 66.3 66.1 64.5 65.3 65.6 64.7 63.2 61.1 59.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 5 1 6 4 7 7 7 10 8 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):143/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 955 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 27. 30. 31. 34. 36. 38.