* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 59 70 75 73 69 61 53 42 33 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 59 70 75 73 69 61 53 42 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 56 62 69 74 74 70 62 54 44 V (KT) G00R 21 24 23 23 24 30 34 28 25 22 18 16 14 SHEAR (KT) 11 7 2 2 1 9 10 20 24 33 33 41 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 -3 -7 -6 1 9 6 6 0 6 8 2 SHEAR DIR 260 286 300 332 69 85 72 80 71 86 61 62 66 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 148 146 145 144 143 140 138 135 128 136 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 56 56 53 50 50 55 57 56 52 50 47 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 18 18 15 14 11 9 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 57 59 47 46 50 56 50 31 34 22 25 12 15 200 MB DIV 15 25 29 41 34 51 50 27 -7 26 21 22 4 LAND (KM) 522 582 655 728 780 809 751 652 527 401 304 289 376 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.7 16.4 17.4 18.5 19.8 20.8 21.4 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.8 110.6 111.2 111.6 112.0 112.2 111.9 112.0 111.9 112.3 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 4 2 4 6 6 7 3 0 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. -1. -4. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 25. 30. 28. 24. 16. 8. -3. -12.