* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 61 71 73 72 68 64 59 49 37 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 61 71 73 72 68 64 59 48 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 56 60 65 66 63 58 53 47 DIS V (KT) G02R 20 24 24 25 25 36 33 33 29 26 26 26 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 3 1 4 16 14 17 20 17 25 47 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 -2 -5 -5 2 11 11 10 3 7 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 262 285 304 313 167 112 108 110 92 85 62 70 N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 28.5 28.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 148 146 145 143 143 140 140 151 154 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 14 14 15 16 15 16 14 14 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 57 54 50 49 55 57 58 55 53 50 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 16 17 20 19 17 15 13 11 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 53 57 55 61 59 37 35 20 12 32 N/A 200 MB DIV 15 30 26 42 30 24 21 8 -2 22 41 21 N/A LAND (KM) 509 590 679 761 817 822 765 663 529 352 73 91 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.7 16.3 17.3 18.6 20.1 22.3 24.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.9 110.0 110.8 111.4 111.8 112.1 112.2 112.2 111.6 110.3 109.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 4 3 3 7 7 11 13 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 28. 27. 23. 19. 14. 4. -8.