* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 63 71 72 71 68 65 62 44 29 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 63 71 72 71 68 65 62 45 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 56 61 65 65 62 59 55 49 DIS V (KT) G03R 20 25 25 26 30 37 35 35 28 29 27 24 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 5 3 2 18 20 28 17 15 27 50 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 -1 -5 -1 8 7 2 10 0 9 9 N/A SHEAR DIR 269 287 301 304 141 119 120 117 115 106 41 46 N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.7 21.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 148 146 144 143 143 141 143 153 76 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 15 15 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 58 54 50 50 53 57 57 52 54 50 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 16 17 19 21 20 18 17 14 13 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 63 59 67 65 61 73 48 39 30 28 52 N/A 200 MB DIV 14 29 35 48 31 8 6 3 23 44 91 58 N/A LAND (KM) 509 590 686 752 802 808 746 660 554 353 45 70 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.2 20.0 22.5 25.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 110.0 110.8 111.3 111.7 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.4 109.9 109.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 6 4 3 2 6 6 13 14 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. 0. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 27. 26. 23. 20. 17. -1. -15.