* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 63 72 73 72 71 69 67 59 46 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 63 72 73 72 71 69 67 59 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 56 61 65 66 64 60 58 54 48 V (KT) G04R 20 25 24 27 30 36 37 33 29 28 27 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 5 2 4 18 19 20 12 10 17 30 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 0 -3 -1 5 8 7 12 6 7 8 4 SHEAR DIR 269 286 307 305 130 121 127 126 100 99 47 59 65 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 148 146 144 144 143 141 142 144 153 137 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 17 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 16 13 14 700-500 MB RH 69 58 54 50 49 53 56 57 54 54 53 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 16 17 18 21 20 19 17 16 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 64 63 61 67 62 63 70 43 47 28 34 27 51 200 MB DIV 14 29 37 46 27 17 5 -10 5 41 72 38 45 LAND (KM) 509 590 677 752 796 797 757 679 572 439 230 21 99 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.0 18.0 19.2 21.0 22.8 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 109.9 110.8 111.3 111.7 111.8 111.7 111.7 111.5 110.9 109.8 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 7 4 3 2 5 4 8 10 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 27. 28. 27. 26. 24. 22. 14. 1.