* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 61 72 75 74 72 69 66 56 41 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 61 72 75 74 72 69 66 57 42 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 56 62 68 71 70 66 62 56 48 V (KT) G05R 20 24 25 26 26 35 35 31 28 25 28 29 17 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 4 1 6 14 11 18 15 17 21 38 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 -1 -5 -4 1 11 5 9 6 6 8 3 SHEAR DIR 266 287 316 69 156 117 101 117 110 92 70 68 69 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.5 29.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 148 146 145 143 143 142 144 150 155 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 14 15 15 17 16 16 14 15 12 12 700-500 MB RH 65 57 53 50 50 55 56 57 56 54 51 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 16 16 20 19 17 16 14 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 62 63 57 58 56 66 64 35 37 20 6 6 21 200 MB DIV 16 32 29 37 33 31 25 1 11 14 35 23 31 LAND (KM) 555 598 686 752 817 818 773 691 544 349 102 49 11 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.7 16.2 17.0 18.3 19.9 22.0 24.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.0 110.0 110.7 111.4 111.7 112.0 112.1 111.8 111.0 110.2 109.4 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 4 3 3 6 7 10 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 27. 30. 29. 27. 24. 21. 11. -4.