* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 60 71 75 72 68 58 50 38 32 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 60 71 75 72 68 58 50 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 55 60 67 70 69 64 56 47 38 V (KT) G06R 20 24 23 23 25 37 35 27 25 23 18 17 14 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 2 2 0 11 14 22 31 35 34 37 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 -3 -7 -4 2 11 4 4 0 8 9 -2 SHEAR DIR 260 284 290 307 122 97 85 93 86 90 51 43 62 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 148 146 145 144 143 138 133 127 124 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 13 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 61 57 53 50 49 54 57 56 51 49 51 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 20 19 16 15 11 10 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 48 50 56 53 54 36 37 30 37 27 28 200 MB DIV 17 27 25 42 27 38 41 13 -15 18 34 37 14 LAND (KM) 531 590 679 752 811 832 782 691 573 472 378 417 507 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.6 16.2 17.1 18.3 19.7 20.6 20.6 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 110.0 110.8 111.4 111.8 112.3 112.4 112.5 113.0 112.7 113.2 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 7 5 3 4 6 6 8 1 1 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -4. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 9. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 30. 27. 23. 13. 5. -7. -13.