* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 64 68 72 75 77 78 77 74 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 59 64 68 72 75 77 78 77 74 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 20 40 53 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 24 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 269 309 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.5 -56.1 -54.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 26 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 58 66 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 17 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 61 91 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -3 116 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 530 592 529 615 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.3 108.7 108.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 3 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. 27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. 29.