* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 63 71 73 71 67 64 60 50 31 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 63 71 73 71 67 64 60 52 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 56 61 64 64 60 55 51 46 30 V (KT) G10R 20 25 24 26 29 36 36 35 27 27 28 27 23 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 4 3 3 22 20 23 22 15 24 48 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 -1 -5 -2 3 8 6 9 3 8 5 0 SHEAR DIR 267 288 299 312 122 119 126 109 112 102 50 68 58 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.3 29.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 148 146 144 143 142 140 143 148 157 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 17 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 15 15 12 9 700-500 MB RH 68 58 53 50 49 53 57 57 53 53 50 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 16 17 18 20 20 18 16 14 12 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 63 63 58 66 63 59 69 45 38 29 23 34 58 200 MB DIV 14 31 36 51 29 13 20 6 8 51 66 40 -6 LAND (KM) 509 590 686 752 802 811 749 642 537 363 117 53 -3 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.8 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.9 22.0 24.4 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 110.0 110.8 111.3 111.8 111.9 111.9 111.9 111.4 110.6 109.7 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 6 4 3 4 5 6 11 11 13 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -10. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -5. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 28. 26. 22. 19. 15. 5. -14.