* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/24/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 70 65 56 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 70 65 56 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 73 71 66 58 48 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 26 32 31 28 21 19 19 12 17 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 20 24 30 39 50 62 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 10 4 -3 -4 -2 0 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 132 75 78 73 60 68 65 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 28.0 28.4 29.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 144 140 144 148 151 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 11 12 10 12 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 53 50 46 43 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 11 10 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 35 16 1 -1 12 -9 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 38 40 49 36 33 23 11 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 740 680 580 471 358 151 28 51 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.9 17.9 19.0 20.2 22.1 23.5 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.3 111.6 111.8 111.9 111.2 110.8 110.2 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 11 9 10 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):344/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -27. -35. -39. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -16. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -38. -54. -68. -74. -80. -84. -85.