* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAUL EP172006 10/24/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 73 70 65 54 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 73 70 65 54 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 73 71 68 64 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 37 39 36 34 32 28 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 16 22 26 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 13 10 11 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 52 50 35 39 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 29.3 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 148 151 158 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 13 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 53 51 47 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 18 16 12 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 12 0 -7 -11 22 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 36 37 52 29 -19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 617 534 421 317 189 74 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 19.2 20.1 21.2 23.5 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.1 110.9 110.6 110.1 108.7 108.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):344/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -9. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -20. -24. -24. -23. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -15. -26. -55. -74. -81. -86. -93. -97.-101.