* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EIGHTEEN EP182006 10/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 49 52 53 57 59 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 49 52 53 57 59 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 49 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 21 18 17 17 14 17 14 15 15 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 9 7 1 4 3 8 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 5 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 310 342 34 229 180 175 161 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.1 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 156 151 145 144 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 16 14 15 16 13 13 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 48 45 48 50 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 -6 -16 8 22 34 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -41 -32 -19 6 31 2 -17 -11 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 269 297 345 403 552 754 890 997 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.6 105.1 105.8 106.7 108.7 110.9 113.0 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 9 12 10 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34.