* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN CP992006 10/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 24 18 17 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 24 18 17 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 36 28 24 23 24 19 18 17 17 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 27 29 29 26 37 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 142 115 116 125 102 82 70 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.5 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 145 143 144 141 135 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 58 58 57 60 60 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 85 71 53 36 12 -10 -31 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 60 56 36 36 26 40 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1117 1015 892 888 829 631 484 388 391 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.0 10.3 11.7 11.7 12.1 14.0 16.2 17.6 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.8 152.4 151.9 152.0 152.4 152.6 151.8 151.7 151.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 7 3 8 9 12 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 898 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -11. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10.