* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EIGHTEEN EP182006 10/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 44 43 46 49 51 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 44 43 46 49 51 53 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 27 23 24 25 21 18 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 8 3 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 327 352 40 274 219 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 153 147 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 14 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 56 54 50 49 52 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 9 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 -8 3 14 25 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -43 -14 1 32 48 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 343 427 474 539 743 878 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.4 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.4 106.4 107.3 108.2 110.6 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -4. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 14. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27.