* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EIGHTEEN EP182006 10/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 48 54 60 65 68 72 76 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 48 54 60 65 68 72 76 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 13 15 16 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 328 22 90 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 154 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 15 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 -6 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -9 5 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 298 349 443 505 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.1 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.6 106.4 107.4 108.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 42. 46. 50.