* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EIGHTEEN EP182006 10/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 49 54 58 61 64 68 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 49 54 58 61 64 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 19 17 18 15 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 3 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 306 346 179 229 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 154 154 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 14 14 15 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 44 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -11 -9 -6 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -2 16 17 24 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 240 332 383 354 428 546 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.1 16.0 16.4 16.0 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.5 106.1 106.3 107.0 108.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 4 4 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 40.