* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN CP992006 10/28/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 45 53 59 63 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 45 53 59 63 64 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 14 15 17 17 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 13 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 9 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 132 111 85 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 49 38 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 51 60 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 955 901 838 783 774 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.4 12.0 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.0 156.5 157.1 158.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 21 CX,CY: -1/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 20. 28. 34. 38. 39. 41. 41.