* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 10/28/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 69 78 86 95 104 110 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 69 78 86 95 104 110 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 21 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 175 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 264 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.2 60.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 12. 22. 28. 34. 39. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 44. 53. 61. 70. 79. 85.