* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWENTY EP202006 11/08/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 37 43 48 51 53 53 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 37 43 48 51 53 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 24 27 31 35 38 41 V (KT) G06R 38 27 28 28 28 29 29 28 24 28 25 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 6 5 5 1 5 9 9 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 0 -4 -4 -6 0 -4 -1 3 3 -6 SHEAR DIR 196 200 262 237 223 284 266 119 315 307 314 325 21 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 147 147 150 150 151 150 150 150 154 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 66 65 62 57 53 53 56 57 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 14 15 15 14 15 13 14 14 15 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 67 56 60 78 76 68 56 37 43 51 61 53 47 200 MB DIV 77 95 99 106 105 80 108 82 80 54 100 24 29 LAND (KM) 1304 1290 1288 1281 1284 1189 1112 1025 1016 1046 1063 864 672 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.7 11.2 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.9 13.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.0 111.3 111.5 111.7 111.5 111.0 110.9 110.9 111.2 111.2 110.3 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 3 4 3 3 1 1 3 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 39. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. 1. 2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. 35.