* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWENTY EP202006 11/08/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 26 28 29 31 31 31 31 33 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 26 28 29 31 31 31 31 33 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 37 28 27 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 267 264 241 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 148 150 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 15 16 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 67 75 79 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 113 118 137 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1275 1293 1275 1216 1147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.4 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.7 111.7 111.5 111.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15.