* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP962006 11/12/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 41 49 53 49 43 40 45 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 41 49 53 49 43 40 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 31 34 40 42 35 28 25 25 V (KT) G08R 28 25 28 25 24 23 23 26 23 16 13 20 28 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 3 1 2 9 14 7 9 7 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -3 -4 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 222 258 279 258 236 47 18 53 39 46 56 40 37 SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.5 26.9 12.7 15.3 26.1 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 147 148 150 155 159 129 58 59 122 159 158 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 12 14 9 11 700-500 MB RH 65 69 70 72 73 72 73 68 65 59 60 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -35 -21 -14 -17 -11 12 10 28 32 33 23 7 200 MB DIV 56 64 61 84 106 99 110 89 53 27 53 48 92 LAND (KM) 675 603 614 599 550 404 240 149 88 62 106 193 295 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.3 14.0 15.6 16.4 16.8 16.6 15.9 15.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.6 100.7 101.5 102.0 102.6 102.3 102.1 101.7 100.7 100.2 100.1 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 10 9 8 9 7 2 4 5 4 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 23. 20. 19. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 24. 28. 24. 18. 15. 20. 23.