* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP962006 11/12/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 40 49 57 64 74 82 88 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 40 49 57 64 74 82 88 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 36 43 51 60 73 84 92 V (KT) G10R 37 30 26 27 26 24 21 25 26 32 38 44 63 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 3 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 2 1 -1 -5 -1 -3 -4 -3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 227 259 303 319 26 86 220 66 90 100 58 52 50 SST (C) 27.9 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 149 147 149 150 150 148 147 150 150 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 13 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 64 67 69 70 74 79 79 79 74 72 70 70 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 11 10 10 10 10 12 13 14 18 21 23 27 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -33 -37 -47 -49 -46 -15 -9 2 23 42 19 28 200 MB DIV 72 87 73 54 70 69 87 77 74 71 103 119 145 LAND (KM) 699 600 594 618 607 575 552 542 532 539 497 384 316 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.8 11.3 11.5 12.0 13.0 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.5 13.8 15.0 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.5 100.7 101.7 102.6 104.2 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.7 104.4 104.6 105.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 10 7 2 0 0 2 3 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 6. 10. 13. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 15. 24. 32. 39. 49. 57. 63. 66.