* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SERGIO EP212006 11/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 72 77 87 93 94 91 84 58 40 32 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 72 77 87 93 94 91 84 53 44 36 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 74 79 85 89 90 87 82 47 40 DIS V (KT) G00R 26 25 27 30 30 38 45 50 44 44 13 11 0 SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 8 9 11 18 18 16 16 28 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -1 -2 3 3 1 2 3 1 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 188 151 129 105 91 80 72 45 17 355 4 40 N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 26.8 11.8 12.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 154 158 159 157 131 61 58 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -53.6 -54.2 -53.5 -54.1 -53.4 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 10 10 7 10 7 10 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 66 69 71 70 64 60 57 50 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 19 21 22 20 19 7 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 14 22 33 31 -1 10 15 35 37 38 31 N/A 200 MB DIV 63 51 48 45 82 118 160 100 139 82 150 73 N/A LAND (KM) 602 599 613 602 587 522 409 322 234 149 -29 7 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.6 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.0 17.0 19.1 19.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.3 104.0 103.7 103.5 103.2 102.9 103.0 103.5 103.7 103.9 105.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 7 11 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):162/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 16. 9. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 10. 7. -8. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 32. 38. 39. 36. 29. 3. -15. -23.