* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SERGIO EP212006 11/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 72 78 85 88 92 93 93 79 50 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 72 78 85 88 92 93 93 79 50 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 70 75 79 84 84 82 80 79 78 76 50 V (KT) G01R 33 30 27 29 27 35 37 37 43 49 50 39 19 SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 11 11 17 18 17 21 19 11 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -1 2 4 6 8 6 0 1 1 9 3 SHEAR DIR 48 134 129 127 124 90 80 71 43 41 2 23 35 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 27.9 9.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 151 152 153 155 154 155 154 154 143 60 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.6 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 11 12 9 11 10 12 8 10 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 64 66 70 71 71 70 65 61 55 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 15 19 20 24 26 26 20 9 850 MB ENV VOR 3 6 14 23 16 -10 5 8 34 34 47 42 47 200 MB DIV 67 47 27 10 43 97 157 117 112 75 123 114 128 LAND (KM) 556 553 557 557 543 516 480 438 389 324 242 114 47 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.5 104.3 104.3 104.2 104.0 104.5 104.7 104.7 104.9 104.8 104.3 105.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 5 4 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):162/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 7. 10. 15. 17. 18. 9. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 17. 23. 30. 33. 37. 38. 38. 24. -5.