* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SERGIO EP212006 11/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 70 74 84 91 92 96 100 100 91 82 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 70 74 84 91 92 96 100 100 91 82 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 68 73 77 82 87 89 90 91 89 84 77 V (KT) G02R 26 24 24 25 28 31 34 41 38 50 47 56 49 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 7 6 11 15 19 11 13 14 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 3 2 8 SHEAR DIR 229 149 129 114 117 95 73 66 36 350 343 357 2 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 149 149 153 157 156 155 154 156 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 11 10 12 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 69 74 75 72 69 63 58 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 17 19 20 21 25 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -1 8 18 27 8 18 20 48 45 46 51 60 200 MB DIV 43 23 32 39 65 108 148 108 115 69 127 65 106 LAND (KM) 564 559 588 617 641 618 542 463 423 389 319 250 233 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.2 12.9 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.8 18.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.0 103.9 103.9 103.7 103.2 103.2 103.6 104.6 105.7 106.4 107.0 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 2 5 6 6 8 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):162/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 10. 13. 18. 20. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 19. 29. 36. 37. 41. 45. 45. 36. 27.