* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SERGIO EP212006 11/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 70 76 72 66 64 60 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 70 76 72 66 64 60 59 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 67 71 74 77 78 78 77 76 76 75 74 V (KT) G07R 44 38 36 36 39 46 37 34 28 28 28 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 5 10 10 9 7 16 25 21 21 25 20 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -3 -2 1 3 2 1 1 6 3 6 SHEAR DIR 185 204 185 167 159 59 45 55 36 60 64 79 86 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 153 155 159 158 157 159 159 159 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 13 7 6 5 8 7 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 72 68 68 65 68 70 66 63 66 67 68 68 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 18 15 13 12 11 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -13 6 24 23 4 -13 -10 -2 15 5 33 28 9 200 MB DIV 72 66 50 42 79 103 127 71 66 71 108 84 85 LAND (KM) 572 584 566 534 472 335 225 226 250 260 298 317 339 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 103.0 102.6 102.1 101.6 100.7 100.6 100.3 100.7 101.3 102.6 103.4 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 7 2 1 3 4 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):162/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 21. 17. 11. 9. 5. 4. 3. 0.