* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN CP922006 11/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 49 53 55 55 55 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 49 53 55 55 55 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 35 40 45 46 46 48 DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 20 22 20 22 25 26 22 17 14 14 12 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 5 10 28 29 35 28 33 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -1 0 11 14 7 6 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 209 170 112 74 61 61 71 88 82 99 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 159 157 155 155 153 164 153 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 65 64 57 49 45 41 38 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 30 28 21 14 19 26 19 11 -6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 126 116 77 73 32 12 -17 -34 -31 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2232 2223 2145 2051 1977 1973 2117 2248 2303 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.6 175.4 175.0 174.4 174.3 175.3 177.1 178.8 179.7 ***** ***** N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 8 8 9 8 9 6 1746 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 24. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. 32.