* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SERGIO EP212006 11/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 30 30 32 33 34 34 31 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 30 30 32 33 34 34 31 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 26 24 22 21 21 21 20 20 18 DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 30 26 25 24 28 29 27 32 27 24 22 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 26 25 28 28 30 28 34 34 37 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 7 4 4 4 3 7 8 11 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 102 93 87 81 87 85 85 73 67 56 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.0 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 151 150 149 149 151 146 135 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 -53.9 -54.6 -54.1 -54.9 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 9 11 9 11 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 65 65 62 61 55 49 45 40 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -25 -29 -23 -6 3 -6 2 3 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 59 66 50 67 81 91 56 43 49 40 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 390 362 341 325 333 376 388 423 527 475 494 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.9 103.5 104.2 104.9 105.9 106.6 108.1 110.1 112.3 114.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 6 5 5 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -4. -15. -20. -20.