* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SERGIO EP212006 11/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 33 37 39 37 34 30 24 22 21 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 33 37 39 37 34 30 24 22 21 V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 25 25 24 25 25 26 27 27 26 25 V (KT) G05R 37 32 32 35 38 36 38 36 35 32 25 18 17 SHEAR (KT) 19 17 16 17 21 18 27 31 33 30 30 35 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 5 1 1 0 12 11 9 6 SHEAR DIR 68 60 35 25 23 36 40 62 67 62 52 55 59 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 148 149 146 146 147 151 151 144 139 138 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 11 9 10 7 8 8 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 66 63 64 63 62 54 52 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 16 14 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 22 24 23 20 16 22 0 9 17 19 15 17 200 MB DIV 113 80 83 122 139 100 105 85 99 52 67 21 11 LAND (KM) 426 435 409 375 340 336 326 326 392 526 655 784 875 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.6 16.2 16.1 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.7 104.0 104.2 104.5 104.6 104.6 104.6 105.6 108.0 110.2 112.0 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 1 1 1 8 12 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -13. -14.