* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP972006 11/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 41 49 58 64 71 76 73 68 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 41 49 58 64 71 76 73 68 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 43 45 46 43 38 V (KT) G10R 30 29 29 28 32 31 34 34 33 37 35 30 25 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 6 5 9 7 4 2 11 19 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 -1 4 6 6 15 12 15 8 SHEAR DIR 108 111 118 93 43 12 354 350 316 50 35 54 55 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 137 138 140 141 142 147 147 141 136 134 133 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 70 65 66 66 66 62 60 58 61 62 58 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 16 17 17 19 20 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 37 57 61 56 65 51 33 20 10 12 -8 200 MB DIV 75 82 78 74 58 46 56 86 116 62 92 60 26 LAND (KM) 1428 1397 1335 1280 1226 1164 1117 1062 925 839 723 722 777 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.5 12.8 14.0 15.5 16.7 17.0 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.4 113.9 113.6 113.3 113.0 112.6 112.2 111.6 111.8 112.1 112.9 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 2 1 6 7 8 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):136/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 12. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 16. 24. 33. 39. 46. 51. 48. 43. 34.