* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL922012 05/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 43 43 40 35 29 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 43 43 40 35 29 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 41 43 43 41 DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 25 29 26 25 24 26 22 20 18 15 13 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 27 26 26 19 12 24 35 45 48 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 1 0 -7 -1 0 3 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 58 44 45 44 80 92 94 90 83 75 N/A N/A SST (C) 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 80 79 78 77 76 75 76 78 79 78 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 72 71 70 70 68 68 68 71 71 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.9 -53.6 -54.7 -54.7 -55.9 -55.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 28 33 36 38 43 47 44 41 37 34 31 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 16 16 16 17 15 13 10 8 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 168 175 174 162 155 136 126 120 120 120 127 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 3 17 -2 8 -9 -23 -13 -4 -12 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1762 1697 1659 1691 1737 1902 1931 1870 1750 1606 1455 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.1 32.8 33.5 34.1 34.6 34.1 33.5 33.5 33.8 34.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.2 30.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 31.6 32.2 31.7 30.3 28.5 26.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 6 3 4 8 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):202/ 15 CX,CY: -5/-13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -6. -4. -3. -3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 4. -2. -9. -13. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 21. 22. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 13. 10. 5. -1. -8. -13. -17.