* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP022012 05/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 44 47 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 44 47 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 31 DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 19 19 18 15 13 14 15 12 14 12 11 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 21 17 12 13 15 10 11 10 9 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 0 0 -2 3 -1 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 349 347 338 308 302 298 300 291 281 294 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 158 159 159 159 158 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 68 68 70 67 67 63 62 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 31 36 45 51 42 36 38 39 31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 87 87 96 103 94 86 67 50 41 25 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 494 481 453 470 492 550 641 724 785 834 908 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.1 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 100.8 100.5 100.2 100.0 100.3 101.2 102.5 104.3 106.3 108.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 3 6 7 10 11 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):173/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 22. 20. 21. 24. 27.