* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL012012 05/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 34 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 34 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 20 24 18 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 50 46 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 64 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.1 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 100 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 88 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -54.0 -54.7 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 82 60 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 51 31 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 320 286 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.6 32.5 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.0 76.1 75.1 74.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. -2. -13. -22. -30. -34. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -9. -16. -21. -24. -28. -32.